2025 was less than a month old when Southern California was rocked by a series of devastating wildfires. With an estimated damage bill of 53 billion dollars, it became the most expensive wildfire ever. As terrible as it is, extreme drought, rainfall and storms are increasingly commonplace, and this has everything to do with global warming.
And this even though virtually every country in the world reached an agreement in 2015 to take real action now. To keep global warming below two degrees and preferably limit it to a maximum of one and a half degrees. They also set out an ambition to peak greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible before starting to reduce them.
Every fraction counts
‘Since 2015, greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 10 per cent and it is not yet clear whether the peak has been reached,” says Carlijn Hendriks, Assistant Professor of Environmental Science, during a lecture at the Radboud Centre for Sustainability Challenges and Scientist Rebellion. Moreover, we are fairly certain that a 1.5-degree temperature increase is now unavoidable. That temperature increase will be reached around 2030. ‘Looking back, you can't really call the past ten years a success, especially since the (promised) actions and policy measures are lagging. One and a half degrees is not feasible in this way; we are more likely to be heading for around 2.6 degrees of warming.’
Although there is little reason for optimism, this does not mean that nothing has happened in recent years, Hendriks points out. ‘Ten years ago, we were still heading for a warming of 3.4 degrees, and in 2009, even a warming of 6 degrees was not unthinkable. So we can draw hope from the fact that climate action does have an effect and that every fraction of a degree counts.’
States cannot do it alone
What is encouraging? The rise of a growing number of climate initiatives by organisations that do not fall under national governments, such as local authorities, businesses and financial institutions. But to what extent do these kinds of initiatives contribute? PhD students Kiri van den Wall Bake and Sebastian Reyes de la Lanza are investigating this in the ACHIEVE project. ‘Governments cannot do it alone,’ says Reyes de la Lanza. “That is why it is important that non-state action also grows.” This is happening, for example, in the global Race to Zero campaign, in which more than 17,000 companies, cities, regions, financial institutions and universities, including Radboud University, are working together to achieve net zero by 2050, meaning that no greenhouse gases will be added to the atmosphere by 2050.
The number of climate initiatives may be growing, but their effectiveness has stagnated in recent years, according to an analysis of 387 initiatives carried out by Van den Wall Bake and Reyes de la Lanza. ‘In particular, you see that smaller initiatives have too little capacity to make a significant contribution.’
In addition, it is striking that the focus of climate initiatives is unbalanced. Van den Wall Bake: ‘Most attention is paid to climate mitigation (limiting global warming), while initiatives related to climate adaptation (adapting to the consequences of climate change) lag.’ The distribution of who is currently involved in and benefiting from climate actions is also unbalanced. “This is mainly what we call the 'Global North’: rich countries in Europe and North America.'
Based on their analysis, Van den Wall Bake and Reyes de la Lanza make a number of recommendations to take climate initiatives by non-state actors to the next level. ‘First of all, we see opportunities in the area of accountability. Many initiatives can make progress in monitoring their goals and being transparent about their activities. This will improve their effectiveness.’ The researchers also advocate a more balanced focus and greater attention to the consequences of climate change. Finally, they emphasise the importance of broader cooperation: “Ensure that multiple parts of the world are involved in climate initiatives, especially since the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are too often overlooked. Therefore, involve the Global South in initiatives and make climate action more inclusive.’
End-of-year series
This story is part of the End-of-year series. Especially for this series, the editors of Radboud Recharge, together with scientists, look back on seven important moments from 2025. Curious about the other articles? View the entire series here.