Can the Netherlands become as divided as America?

22 October 2024 Research news item

When you think of US elections, you think of Republicans against Democrats. And according to sociologist Jochem Tolsma, this very system contributes to the deep divisions among the population of the United States. ‘People identify with one of the two.’

With the elections looming, it is once again striking how divided the United States is. Experts have seen deep rifts in US society in recent years, and with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the polarisation has increased even further. Where does this deep division come from and is it something we should also take into account in Europe and the Netherlands?

‘There is polarisation in the Netherlands too,’ begins Tolsma. ‘But although the majority of the Dutch population thinks that polarisation is increasing, no convincing evidence for this has been found so far.’ He sees another big difference with the United States. 'In the Netherlands, polarisation stems from different opinions on issues such as climate and migration. In America, people either identify with Democrats or Republicans and there is affective polarisation. Americans think positively about people of their own party and negatively about people of the other party.'

Anti-elitism

That two-party system and the resulting divisions is unique, according to Tolsma. Yet that is certainly not the only reason for the deep divisions in American society. He points to the growing income inequality and segregation that characterise the United States. ‘As a result, anti-elitism and anti-establishment thinking is also growing, and Donald Trump in particular is making good use of that.’

In this area, Tolsma sees clear parallels with Europe and the Netherlands. 'The dissatisfaction with the elite is much broader. In South America, but also in Europe, where politicians like Viktor Orbán and, in the Netherlands, Thierry Baudet play on those sentiments.' As far as Tolsma is concerned, there is something cynical about this. ‘More and more people are voting for parties that do not necessarily represent their best interests.’

Blocked town halls

What polarisation, segregation, inequality and strong identification with a political party can lead to was demonstrated in early 2021, when angry Americans stormed the Capitol. Should we fear the same in the Netherlands? Tolsma: ‘Fortunately, we have not yet seen anything like that here, but in the Netherlands town halls are being blocked and politicians are being visited at their private addresses. That can also threaten democracy.'

Tolsma does not have a ready-made solution, but to create less division in the long term, both in the Netherlands and America, he would tackle inequality in the first place. As for segregation, too deep divisions are by no means desirable, but a certain degree of segregation is part and parcel of life. 'Opinion polarisation has not necessarily increased in recent years. You hear more about the extremes, but there are still plenty of people with nuanced views.

The perception that the Netherlands is highly polarised and that polarisation continues to increase may well get in the way of a willingness to listen to each other. Tolsma: ‘So this erroneous image needs to be adjusted. Political discontent is probably caused more by socio-economic inequality than by polarisation and segregation. So tackle the excesses there.'

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Organizational unit: Faculty of Social Sciences, Radboud Social Cultural Research
Theme: International, Politics, Society, Elections

Can the Netherlands become as divided as America?

Anti-elitism

Blocked town halls

Read more about the US election

Contact information