Peelen and Tolsma analysed the views of more than 50,000 Dutch people between 1986 and 2023. Participants responded to questions and statements such as ‘I am concerned about the climate’ and ‘The government is doing enough to combat climate change’. Peelen explains: ‘We examined how Dutch attitudes towards the climate changed between 1986 and 2023, and whether these views diverged. In other words, whether polarisation increased.’ Their comparison shows that climate change has not led to greater polarisation; instead, people have grown closer in their views. ‘More and more people are taking climate change seriously, and in that sense they have found more common ground in recent years.’
As an example, Peelen points to the statement about being concerned about climate change. Ten years ago, 23% of Dutch people were not at all or not very concerned about climate change. In that same year, 23% also said they were (extremely) concerned. ‘If we look at the same question in 2023, the group that is not at all or not very concerned has shrunk to 19%, while the group that is (extremely) concerned has grown to 35%. Moreover, there is now less variation in these views, which indicates decreasing polarisation.’
Irreconcilable?
This is quite striking, says Peelen: ‘Various reports, including those from the SCP, show that the Dutch have the impression that our attitudes are drifting further apart and may become irreconcilable.’ Research commissioned by SIRE also found that 80% of Dutch people feel that polarisation has recently increased. ‘We show that actual polarisation has not increased at all. For example, when it comes to the climate, most people agree with each other more than they think. Although perceptions of polarisation may cause pessimism, it is encouraging to know that people have actually become more united on climate change.’
Education gap
The research also shows that no significant gap has emerged between people with basic, intermediate or higher education over the past forty years. ‘According to various scientists, the worlds of people with and without academic qualifications are said to be drifting further apart. Our results show that, over time, those with basic, intermediate and higher levels of education have not grown further apart in their views on the climate. When it comes to climate change, people with practical and theoretical training do indeed find common ground.’