‘Myths are ideas that keep coming back. They are repeated because they serve political interests and because scientific corrections naturally lag in public debate,’ Spierings begins. Finding things out simply takes time.
Myths keep coming back because they are seductively simple; they provide guidance in a complex world.
How do you debunk a claim that, by definition, has nothing to do with the truth? You cannot simply “fact-check” a myth. Instead, scientists can uncover patterns, reveal fallacies and use examples to show why something is (un)true. That is why, together with Spierings, we debunk four persistent myths about Dutch voting behaviour in this article. Here we go!
Myth #1: Migrants vote en masse for the populist right
In some neighbourhoods, such as the Schilderswijk in The Hague, a populist right-wing party is the second largest party. A relatively large number of people with a migrant background live in these same neighbourhoods.
The conclusion is obvious: migrants vote en masse for the populist right. But this is a classic case of what Spierings calls an “ecological fallacy”. This fallacy arises when we use information about a neighbourhood, city or country to make statements about individuals. In fact, data that focuses on personal behaviour shows that people with a migrant background are less likely than average to vote for populist right-wing parties.
An internet poll is not scientific research
In such neighbourhoods, votes for these parties often come from non-migrants. But because we confuse neighbourhoods and individuals, this reasoning feeds an image that is not accurate. An image that is formed solely by fallacies and anecdotes, and can be refuted by systematic analysis.
So here it is: migrants do not vote en masse for the populist right.
Myth #2: LGBTIQ+ people vote for populist right-wing parties with remarkable frequency
This claim often comes from internet polls on specific platforms, such as the Gaykrant or gaysite.nl. But such polls are not representative. ‘They mainly measure who the regular website visitors are and who felt like clicking at that moment, not what an entire group thinks,’ says Spierings.
The media love unexpected, “exciting” news. It generates clicks and money.
In reliable research, with random samples and broad surveys, Spierings sees a different picture: LGBTIQ+ people predominantly vote for the progressive left. Support for populist right-wing parties is relatively low. ‘An internet poll is not scientific research,’ emphasises Spierings. It says something about the visitors to a site, not about an entire community. So why are these kinds of ideas repeated so often? ‘The media love unexpected, “exciting” news. It generates clicks and money,’ says Spierings. And for populist right-wing parties, it is a way of saying: Even gay people (or Muslims) are in favour of us, so we can't really be completely against them, can we?
In short, LGBTIQ+ people do not vote for populist right-wing parties particularly often, but rather for progressive left-wing parties.
Myth #3: The housing crisis is driving the populist right-wing agenda
‘Housing is an important issue during elections. But for voters of populist right-wing parties, migration is structurally higher on the agenda,’ says Spierings. According to him, the housing crisis is therefore more of a hook than a cause. He points out that research shows that anti-migration attitudes have remained fairly stable over the last twenty years. ‘In previous elections, the focus was on jobs or “un-Dutch” Islamic values. Now it's “housing”, and next time it might be something else.’
In short, the housing market is not the main reason why many people vote for these parties.
Myth #4: The left has no narrative
The left does have a narrative. But it is a more difficult narrative: one of adaptation, solidarity and collective responsibility. The populist right often offers a more reassuring narrative: You don't have to change. ‘The fact that the populist right is gaining so much ground right now can also be explained sociologically,’ says Spierings.
The left demands effort, the populist right offers confirmation
Those who grow up without war or scarcity often expect freedom and self-development. The current generation grew up in comfort and quickly finds it unfair to give anything up. This clashes with major challenges such as climate, nitrogen and diversity, where everyone has to adapt. ‘Previously, we saw a wave of green politics in the 1990s and later the rise of the populist right. Both fit into that slow cultural shift,’ says Spierings.
In short, the left demands effort, while the populist right offers confirmation. There is a left-wing narrative, but it is less comfortable.
Look further
Myths keep coming back because they are seductively simple; they provide guidance in a complex world. But if you really want to understand why people vote the way they do, you have to look beyond the neighbourhood, the poll or the anecdote. Spierings concludes: ‘The data is there. So is the nuance. It's time we took them seriously.’