“We already know from other research that people often fail to follow through on their exercise plans,” says Elisa de Weerd, a health economist at Radboud University and the paper’s lead author. “But this is the first time we’ve been able to measure on a large scale how often a specific intention to exercise actually leads to a visit to the gym. We were also able to see exactly what happens to people who do start: do they stick with it?”
41 million bookings
The researchers from Radboud University and the RIVM used administrative data from a large gym chain, covering the period from July 2020 to February 2022. During that period, visitors were required to book in advance in order to enter the gym. ‘As a result, people had to state very explicitly in advance whether they wanted to exercise,’ explains co-researcher Koen van der Swaluw. ‘This offers a unique opportunity to see to what extent concrete plans lead to action.’
In total, around 41 million bookings were made at this chain during this period. Only 29 million of these actually resulted in a visit to the gym. In 30.5 per cent of the bookings, therefore, the intention did not lead to a visit.
Older people versus younger people
This gap is widest amongst younger people: in the under-20 age group, on average around 33 per cent did not turn up. By contrast, amongst older people (aged 65 to 80), only 19 per cent of bookings did not result in a visit to the gym. There is also a difference in intention between men and women: for men, 29 per cent of bookings did not result in a visit to the gym, whilst for women the average was 34 per cent.
The researchers also observed that enthusiasm wanes quickly. Of those who went to the gym in July 2020 – just after gyms reopened following a closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic – around 62 per cent were still attending by December 2020. By December 2021, just before a new lockdown, only 37.7 per cent of that original group were still active.
Focus policy on sustaining activity
The Dutch are generally sporty, active people: compared with most other countries, we are very active. Yet more than half of the Dutch population still does not get enough exercise. That is why there are many policies aimed at getting the Netherlands moving. But that is not the only barrier, as the research by De Weerd and her colleagues shows.
‘Policy should also focus on keeping people active. Support, such as financial incentives for those taking part in sport, could, for example, be provided during the first few weeks and months of their activity, so that they continue to feel supported even after they’ve started,’ says Van der Swaluw. ‘Other incentives that might help include sending people reminders, or highlighting the cost of their unused gym membership. The Dutch lead the way when it comes to being active, but there is still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to our health. If we focus our policies on how to turn healthy intentions into healthy behaviour in the long term, there is still a great deal to be gained.’