Three levels of trust
To interpret the SCP figures, Van Elsas points to three levels of political trust. “At the top there is trust in the democratic system, which is often more stable. That works as long as it offers room for discontent. This is followed by trust in institutions, such as government, parliament and parties. The third level is trust in specific politicians, which fluctuates the most.”
The connection voters feel with politicians is important, Van Elsas explains. “As in personal relationships, trust is essential. Voters expect competent politicians who act with integrity and put citizens' interests first. And on that front, politicians have not performed very well in recent years. On the other hand, falling and fluctuating trust is not by definition negative: it shows people's critical engagement.”
Van Elsas points out that fluctuations in trust can often be explained quite easily. “At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, we saw a clear increase in trust: that was the so-called rally around the flag effect. People felt they needed to face a crisis together and they stood by the government en masse. As the pandemic progressed, and criticism of the policy became more vocal, voter confidence waned. After the 2023 elections, voter confidence rose slightly, but then fell again due to the protracted formation and internal conflicts within the cabinet.”
From a crisis of trust to a crisis of reliability
According to Van Elsas, political scientists prefer to speak of a crisis of reliability in politics, rather than a crisis of trust among citizens. “Trust follows from reliability,” she explains. “If politicians make promises they cannot keep – for example, because they violate the constitution or international treaties – a group of voters will remain dissatisfied.”
Van Elsas is currently researching groups of people who have structurally low confidence in politics. “Especially voters who care about the migration issue remain distrustful no matter who is in government. If that feeling persists and faith in recovery disappears, that distrust may spill over into a lack of trust in democracy itself, and create support for alternative political models.”
She highlights the role media plays in the decrease in confidence. “There is a strong perception of a crisis of trust in the Netherlands. And that image seems to be reinforced by media, politicians, and opinion leaders. On social media, people mainly read opinions that confirm their views. Algorithms perpetuate this, potentially creating a distorted perspective of what people in society really think.”
Regaining trust
Van Elsas notes that House of Representatives elections often have a positive effect on political trust. “Political scientists call this the ‘Election boost’: voters enjoy voting, it gives them a sense of influence and legitimacy. But if politics is mostly about strategy – such as who wants to work with whom – and less about policy and substantive vision, voters experience less choice.”
How can people regain trust in politics? Van Elsas argues that the main key lies with politicians themselves. “Reliable governance is crucial. Voters need to perceive that politicians care about their problems and are not just concerned with power or strategy. That means: less focus on battle, more on substance. And after the elections, it is important that the winners get out of their campaign mode. Those who govern must take responsibility for creating stability, not further polarisation.”
She also calls for more honesty in communication. “A well-explained compromise is better than an empty promise. Voters appreciate politicians who acknowledge that they could not deliver on all their promises but did their best. Integrity is therefore essential. If people feel that their representatives are honest and trustworthy, trust in politics can grow again.”
Photo: Brian Wertheim via Unsplash
