Not so long ago, the scenarios described above might have sounded absurd and dystopian, the preserve of non-Western, autocratic regimes. But given developments in recent years in Hungary, the United States and Poland – countries regarded as allies of the Netherlands – it suddenly seems far less far-fetched. “We live in a world that is not only post-truth, but also post-rules: some politicians claim that neither the truth nor the rules apply to them”, explains Bart Jacobs.
This prompted Jacobs, a professor and expert in cyber security, to write Democratie onder druk together with Rowin Jansen, a legal scholar specialising in national security law. “In it, we use eight concrete scenarios to show how politicians and the secret services in the Netherlands too could go off the rails”, says Jansen. “It’s a book for anyone with an interest in the democratic rule of law who wants to be aware of the risks and the safeguards we have in the Netherlands.”
An accumulation of small interventions
Jacobs: “Suppose a Minister of the Interior has a problem with sovereignists who refuse to recognise the government. What if the minister labels that group as opponents of his political policy and asks the intelligence services to keep an eye on them? Can he simply do that, or would a civil servant refuse such a request? And what happens if a head of department or supervisor refuses the minister?”
“We’re not concerned about anything major and immediate like a coup, the danger lies in an accumulation of small and subtle interventions,” adds Jansen. “You take away some funding here, replace some troublesome people there, and extend your powers just a little further in all sorts of places. The sum total of these measures can be dangerous, particularly when it comes to protected parts of the government such as the secret services. Our book shows where the risks lie if no one intervenes.”
Autocratic stress test
The researchers point, for example, to a great deal of new legislation concerning the intelligence services. Politicians claim, citing factors such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and technological developments such as generative AI and social media, that the services need new powers to keep us safe. But, Jacobs warns: that is a dangerous ad hoc argument. “New legislation may seem necessary, but it can also give too much leeway to a minister who has lost their way, thereby causing permanent damage to the democratic rule of law.”
The two researchers argue that new legislation should, as a matter of course, be subjected to an autocratic stress test. Jansen: “Where are the loopholes in the law? What are the risks of abuse? How do we close off the legal backdoors for autocratic politicians in time? Precisely because many decisions concerning national security take place in secret, the risk of abuse is high. In Democratie onder druk we describe the safeguards designed to prevent such abuse, and why we must cherish and strengthen those safeguards.”
'Democratie onder druk: over de geheime diensten in turbulente tijden' will be released on May 13, and is published by Querido Facto.