Climate change, the erosion of democracies, and budget cuts in education and science. Together with colleagues from Switzerland, Bareerah Hafeez Hoorani, Assistant Professor in Qualitative Research, is developing a methodology to get to the heart of such complex problems. “It’s a bit like time travel.”
Hoorani is working with colleagues from the Università della Svizzera italiana (Gizem Kadıoğlu and Michael Gibbert) in Switzerland on developing a qualitative research methodology that uses so-called counterfactuals. They’re essentially 'what-if' scenarios, she explains.
‘For example, consider the planned budget cuts to higher education. If you want to understand such a problem and what the impact might be, you need to go back in time to a situation where we faced a similar issue. In the 1980s, for instance, there were significant cuts to education: several degree programs were scrapped, including the sub-faculty of Dentistry in Utrecht.’
‘You then proceed step by step. First, you look at the situation back then. How did we deal with the problem at the time? But also: what were the consequences? Then you start to imagine possible alternative scenarios that did not materialize. For example, what innovations did we miss out on because of it? In the final step, you use all that knowledge to visualise a possible future. In short, using ‘what if’ scenarios, you reimagine the past, question the present, and create alternative futures.’
So it’s essentially about learning from history?
‘It’s really a form of time travel. The heart of this methodology is about reflective, critical and creative thinking. You can return to a similar situation in the past, or to a similar situation in another country, but you can also make use of fiction. Take the example of the extinct dire wolf that American scientists have “brought back to life”. Stories like Jurassic Park can help us think about such technologies and how to deal with them.’
But the counterfactual-method can also help organisations and businesses?
‘Absolutely. For instance, if an organisation is in crisis or struggling with questions around sustainability. Sustainability may seem like a modern issue, but companies and organisations were already dealing with it in one way or another in the past. By critically reflecting on the challenges of that time, and thinking about alternative scenarios—what if they had tackled the sustainability issue differently back then—you can gather a wealth of relevant information to help develop effective strategies today.’
If it’s about cuts to higher education, for example, then you need to make sure there’s an economist, an educationalist, a political scientist, a historian, and a sociologist involved. Together, you go through the various phases of critical reflection.
How does that work in practice? Can you do it on your own?
‘You really need others. The most important thing is having the relevant expertise at the table when developing ‘what if’ scenarios. If it’s about cuts to higher education, for example, then you need to make sure there’s an economist, an educationalist, a political scientist, a historian, and a sociologist involved. Together, you go through the various phases of critical reflection.’
Hoorani raised in Pakistan, specialised in econometrics and later received training in qualitative research. After her Bachelor’s, she took a slight detour and spent two years teaching science and English to around eighty girls from an impoverished community of Pakistan. It was an experience that deeply shaped her, she says. ‘I wanted to do development work and thought I was going to teach the girls something. But the opposite happened. They taught me so much about life. They were very intelligent, far smarter than me. And even though they had almost nothing, they were so hopeful and positive about life.’
Did that experience also change your view on research?
‘In the impoverished community, I experienced first-hand that behind ‘terrible’ statistics, beautiful stories can be hidden. I feel that with qualitative research I get closer to real life, to the human experience. Sometimes it feels like the world is flooded with problems; wars, climate change, famine, and so on. It’s easy to become hopeless. But by travelling back in time and thinking critically and creatively, I manage to stay hopeful, just like the girls I taught.’
Text: Inge Mutsaers