NATO summit in the Netherlands: both member states and The Hague are on high alert

20 June 2025 Research news item

Large fences dividing streets in two, neighbourhoods closed off from public life and 27,000 police officers on duty: the NATO summit on 24 and 25 June has been gripping The Hague for several months now. The political and military alliance of 32 countries from Europe and North America is meeting in the Netherlands for the first time. “As the organiser, it is crucial for the Netherlands that the summit is a success.”

Ongoing bombing in the Middle East, war in Ukraine and threats from Russia are raising questions and concerns about security worldwide. The fact that security cannot be taken for granted in the West is evident from the call by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to increase the defence budget of each member state from 2 to 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). “This is definitely the most important point of this NATO summit,” says Professor of International Relations Bertjan Verbeek. “NATO member states have been on edge for some time now that the support of the United States, given President Trump's statements, no longer seems to be a given.”

The country of peace and security

Member states must comply with the new NATO standard within seven years by increasing their defence budgets. The Netherlands has already decided to expand its budget to 3.5%, an estimated sixteen to eighteen billion euros per year on top of current defence spending. Verbeek does not expect the Netherlands to oppose the additional increase to 5%, partly because the House of Representatives has given Prime Minister Schoof a mandate to agree to this at the summit. “In addition, it is significant for us as the host country that the summit is a success, because that is good for our reputation abroad,” says Verbeek. “It will enable the Netherlands to increase its soft power and diplomatic strength in international politics. The city of The Hague, with its rich history of hosting major meetings on peace and security, will also be able to further raise its international profile.”

This will be the first NATO summit to be held in the Netherlands. Previous summits were organised at strategic locations, such as to welcome new member states (Latvia in 2006 and Romania in 2008) and to support the Baltic states against the increased Russian threat (Lithuania in 2023). In 2014, the Netherlands proved that it can be entrusted with the organisation of a major international summit with the successful organisation of the Nuclear Security Summit.

As a result, Dutch citizens, and more specifically residents and entrepreneurs in the vicinity of The Hague, will be subject to various security measures. Verbeek says that extra attention is being paid to cybersecurity and fake news. “There are concerns about interference from Russia and China, which are trying to emphasise and exacerbate differences of opinion among NATO member states through cyber attacks and fake news.”

Focus on Asia?

Although the Netherlands can present itself as a good organiser and a soft power during the NATO summit, most eyes will be on the United States. Will Trump insist that Europe take responsibility for its own security, or will he continue to support Europe in the coming years? “This tension is also present at this conference: on the one hand, America wants Europe to spend more on defence, but on the other hand, Europe should not become so independent that it no longer needs the United States.”

This American attitude stems from the so-called Asian Pivot, a change of course initiated by the US under President Obama, whereby the country began to focus its foreign policy more on Asia. “In that sense, you could almost say that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was ‘beneficial’ for the NATO countries,” explains Verbeek. 'It meant that the US turned its attention back to Europe.'

That war will certainly be discussed at the upcoming summit. In several NATO countries, including the Netherlands, there is a strong fear that Russia will threaten peace in the long term. Mark Rutte, for example, stated that Russia could attack NATO within five years. “However, it remains to be seen whether NATO will unanimously conclude at the summit that Russia will behave aggressively towards NATO member states in the short term. Countries such as Slovakia and Hungary, which have a more positive attitude towards Russia than the Netherlands, for example, will also be present at the summit.”

Now that the United States has carried out attacks in Iran and consensus on the 5% norm is within reach, Verbeek suspects that there will be a lot of talk about Iran in the corridors. “European countries such as Germany and France are advocating de-escalation and room for diplomacy. The United States is talking in terms of unconditional surrender by Iran. A common position is not in sight.”

Sacrifices for security

Verbeek predicts that the five per cent increase will go ahead, with a few exceptions in the timeframe in which it must be achieved, such as for Spain, which has already indicated that it will not be able to meet the deadline. He also takes into account the announcement of a new NATO strategy, particularly about the relationship between Europe and Asia and a position on the extent to which Russia should be seen as a threat. “I also expect that the countries, partly through this summit, will want to emphasise that residents of NATO member states will have to make greater financial sacrifices for their security.” He adds with a smile: “But I'm often wrong with my predictions.”

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Photo: The 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Source: Wikimedia Commons

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Organizational unit: Nijmegen School of Management, Institute for Management Research, International Relations
Theme: Current affairs, International, Politics