The hidden costs of war: restoring agricultural lands will cost billions

27 February 2025 Research news item

Enormous bomb craters, pollution, and remnants of unexploded ammunition. The war in Ukraine is not only taking lives but also destroying vast areas of farmland. Together with colleagues, Killian McCarthy, associate professor of Strategy, mapped and quantified the damage.

Ukraine has vast agricultural land and is a key player in the global food market. But bombs, rockets, heavy military vehicles, and mines have devastated and contaminated large areas of land. Even after the war ends, recovery will take a long time, says Killian McCarthy. At first sight, this research on agricultural land in Ukraine seems a bit of an anomaly. His research normally focuses on strategic issues, such as mergers and acquisitions. Much of his research deals with strategic issues such as mergers and acquisitions. But as an economist, he is also concerned with policy issues such as money laundering and tax competition.

The project started with researchers from the geography departments in Ukraine. They attempted to map the physical damage to the agricultural land. How much land was affected? How severe was the contamination from ammunition remnants? How deep are the craters? These are important questions, McCarthy explains. ‘I wanted to explore the economic side: how much will it cost to restore all this devastated land?’ Charkiv, the metropolis in the northeast bordering Russia, has been under attack for three years. The researchers calculated that approximately 162,294 hectares of farmland in the Charkiv Oblast region – an area about the size of London – have been destroyed. They calculated that recovery will cost approximately two billion dollars.

How did you conduct this research?

‘My Ukrainian colleagues, who are geographers, studied satellite images from before and after the war. Using soil samples and AI-powered analytical tools, they were able to calculate the size of the devastated area. Ukraine is an incredibly vast country. Charkiv Oblast alone is bigger than Belgium. The Kharkiv Oblast alone is larger than Belgium. The ten most damaged agricultural regions in Ukraine are larger than all the agricultural land in France and Germany combined.’

What are the consequences of this destruction?

‘Ukraine is a crucial supplier of grain. Countries such as Egypt, Libya and Yemen depend on corn and wheat from Ukraine. Half of their food comes from there. And they cannot just get it from somewhere else, so these countries are in serious trouble.’

What does this research show?

‘The assumption has always been that after the war the farmers will just get back to work. But this research suggests that it won’t be that easy: billions will need to be invested. The affected area is enormous, and many explosives remain, making it unsafe to return. Demining costs about 40,000 per hectare. And in Charkiv alone 162,294 hectares have been damaged.’ In addition, the country has approximately 420,829 bomb craters more than a metre deep. To repair these, 2.15 million cubic metres of earth is needed. A large truck can hold 25 cubic metres. That is about ninety thousand truckloads. Furthermore, the land has become far less fertile. Significant amounts of fertilizers are needed for recovery, costing around 400 euros per hectare. When you put these numbers together, it’s clear that the issue won’t be resolved overnight.’

How much money is needed?

‘Restoring the ten most affected regions of Ukraine would cost about twenty billion dollars. That is fifteen to twenty percent of Ukraine’s pre-war GDP. And of course, destroyed farmland is not their biggest concern—hospitals and schools take priority.’ McCarthy picks up a list of what has been destroyed and reads aloud: ‘Five power plants, twelve airports, 580 municipal offices, 1,300 hospitals, 3,800 schools, and 250,000 houses have been damaged.’

You mention the need for international support and strategic coordination?

‘Recovery will be a long-term process. The affected area is unimaginably vast. This is not something individual farmers can handle alone. Even if they tried, the land would remain less fertile in the long run. And at 40,000 euros per hectare for demining, and 400 per hectare for fertilising, no farmer can afford it. A professor in Ukraine earns 400 euros per month. International aid will be essential. But that probably won’t be coming; farmers have low priority, and only the food supply of poor countries like Yemen will be affected.’

Political support for Ukraine appears to be declining in the Netherlands as well?

‘Politicians want to block asylum seekers and refugees. But a farmer from Kharkiv does not want to live as a refugee in Amsterdam-Zuid. He wants to stay. If you provide him with some financial support in Ukraine, you solve two problems at once.’

Text: Inge Mutsaers

Contact information

Organizational unit: Nijmegen School of Management, Institute for Management Research, Business Administration, Responsible Innovation & Entrepreneurship
About person: Dr K.J. Mc Carthy (Killian)