This is how a politician wins your vote

Risk of voter contact

Unthinkable though it may seem these days, campaigning was not an issue in the nineteenth century. “Thorbecke, the founder of our parliamentary system, did not bother to campaign at all,” says Kaal. “Contact with voters, he said, meant the risk of making promises that could not be kept. Politics in those days was still about status and independence.”

That perspective changed in the late nineteenth century with the rise of political parties. “Politicians started presenting themselves as representatives of groups such as workers, Catholics, or Protestants. That is called testimonial politics. From the mid-1960s onwards, those fixed ties between ideology and voter disappeared once again. Voters started floating: they were more likely to vote based on trust in a politician they knew from television.” 

No more long-term perspectives

According to Kaal, this shift is especially apparent from election posters over the years. “Posters used to call for Catholic emancipation or a socialist Valhalla. Now the message is all about the here and now: trust me and I will solve the problems for the next four years from The Hague. There are no more long-term visions these days: political messages have become more short-term, politicians no longer paint long-term future perspectives.”

That, according to Kaal, is a sign of our times. “Former Prime Minister Rutte even openly said he had no vision. It is part of a businesslike style of government, similar to that of Lubbers and Kok. Fortuyn brought polarisation back into the debate after the Purple Cabinets era, something you also see with Wilders and his focus on anti-immigration.”

Kaal sees in this a historical conjuncture. “After a stable period, you often get a politician who fuels the debate, while after a troubled cabinet, there is a need for calm and stability again.”

Importance of image building

Kaal agrees that gaining trust remains crucial for politicians. “What helps is listening to the voter, showing understanding and returning to the issues raised in campaign speeches. The importance of being close to the voter is of all times. As a politician, for instance, you used to have to know what a carton of milk cost, so you knew what policies meant for ordinary people's wallets. But style, personality and charisma are now equally important. Van Agt had a relativising tone, Samsom relied on honesty, and Bontenbal now opts for civility, like one of his CDA predecessors, Balkenende. This is how politicians try to distinguish themselves.”

With media being the main route to voters, attention to image building is now essential, according to Kaal. “In 2012, Samsom was praised by the media after a strong debate, while Roemer was left with the image of the man who drank orangeade through a straw after a disappointing debate. Image building from the media therefore has a great influence on voters.”

Kaal therefore warns parties to avoid division at election time. “Never hint that your party leader is under pressure within the party. Think of Yesilgöz's shaky position now within the VVD, or of Lubbers attacking his CDA leader Brinkman in 1994. That is not good for voter confidence.”

Politicians as human beings

In the images they create, parties are increasingly trying to show the human side of their leaders. “They want to show that their leader is ‘one of us’,” says Kaal. “Think of Frans Timmermans in the stands at his favourite football club Roda JC. But that approachable side must remain balanced with authority, because a politician must also rise above the mundane.”

In the upcoming elections, Kaal expects a familiar campaign image. “However, the polls are now interpreted more cautiously, with more margins. Pollsters are aware that their figures influence voting behaviour. It will be interesting to see which politician succeeds in hijacking the media narrative with a topic that attracts a lot of attention.”

Finally, Kaal points to the field of tension between content and feelings. “A voting guide gives substantive advice, but ultimately the voter weighs that against the politicians' appearance. The question to the voter in the voting booth is: what is more important?”

Want to read more about Harm Kaal's study on 175 years of campaign culture in the Netherlands? You can do so in the recently published book, De strijd om de stembus – Verkiezingscampagnes voor de Tweede Kamer vanaf 1848 (The battle for the ballot box – Election campaigns for the House of Representatives from 1848 onwards). Please note: this book is only available in Dutch.