Portret Sandrino Smeets en Emma Leenders

'Trump is a caricature of a development we were in anyway'

28 April 2025 Research news item

Since Donald Trump has been in the White House for the second time, a whirlwind has swept over the world. Europe must pull out all the stops in numerous areas. Sandrino Smeets, associate professor of Research Methods, and Emma Leenders, PhD candidate in Public Administration, are concerned with European decision-making. How does the new U.S. administration affect Europe, especially in the areas of energy and climate?

Trump's actions are not creating a crisis in Europe as COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine did before, argues Sandrino Smeets. Although 'Liberation Day' (the day the United States declared trade war on the rest of the world) was perceived as a shock, people saw it coming. 'I rather call this policy challenges. The European Commission is well prepared and has plans in place.' According to Smeets, there is a bigger issue at stake: strategic independence. 'Because of the invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis that ensued, we as Europe need to stand more on our own two feet. Trump is a caricature of a development we were in anyway.'

The energy transition is not only about sustainability, but also about security. The war ratified the policy and you can see that again now.

Green Deal

Even if you zoom in on energy and climate policy, which Emma Leenders is researching, there is no crisis. ‘We already wanted renewable energy. The unpredictability of the United States confirms once again that we need to go down this path with our own resources in order to be less dependent.’ In 2019, the European Green Deal opted for this direction, setting ambitious targets for reducing emissions by 2030 and 2050. 'The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has already allowed the EU to reframe policy,' Leenders says. ''

De-industrialisation

But there is another side to it. Last year, ahead of the European elections, climate and energy policy was downplayed in some parts. The popular mood was that the transition was going too fast and that there was de-industrialization. Smeets: 'Diederik Samsom was involved in setting up the policy. In a column in De Volkskrant, he admitted that too little thought had been given to the disappearance of existing industry that we still desperately need, such as steel. 'With that, you can actually make yourself more dependent.' The European Commission is now considering a more flexible but also less ambitious climate target for 2040. 'That means that between 2040 and 2050 we will suddenly have to do a lot more to reduce emissions,' says Leenders.

Subsidies and pricing

The United States takes a very different approach to climate and energy policy. With the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden came up with his own kind of Green Deal in 2022, stimulating domestic investment with subsidies. 'In Europe, on the other hand, people are very proud of the emissions trading system, where the polluter pays,' says Leenders. 'This has been in place for about 20 years and is becoming increasingly strict. Companies buy allowances to emit. The number of allowances is decreasing, so companies have to reduce their emissions.' A major problem is that energy prices in Europe are higher than in the United States anyway, Smeets observes. 'And then a subsidy package like this comes on top of that. But it can also be positive. 'Companies suffer at least as much from uncertainty as from higher prices.'

Soon the Russian gas tap will close and then we will be dependent on LNG. If imports from the United States fall off, there could just be a new energy crisis.

LNG

For Europe and its energy and climate policy, Smeets does not ultimately expect major difficulties with Trump. 'The existing developments are in momentum and we know what to do. Thereby the disagreement among European countries is quite limited, because it is about security and not just climate.' And what you don't hear anyone talking about is that Trump will be gone in four years. 'I read somewhere the headline: "It will never be the same again." But there will eventually be another election and a lot can basically be reversed.' Only with LNG (liquefied natural gas) does Europe remain vulnerable. 'Soon the Russian gas tap will close and then we will be dependent on LNG. If imports from the United States fall off, there could just be a new energy crisis.'

Consequences for citizens

Leenders worries about possible inflation at the hands of Trump. 'If products become more expensive, it will also be difficult for climate policy, because that is expensive and will be added. I foresee consequences for citizens.' If the need for independence causes the transition to accelerate, that's good news. 'But you don't get that done overnight. Implementation takes a long time and requires a lot of investment, for example in training solar panel installers.' In the ideal scenario, the policy that has now been agreed upon would be implemented. 'However, that is quite optimistic.'

Reality

Smeets has confidence in the policy. 'People agree that we have a climate problem and that we have to tackle it. But how are you going to bring people into that?' He sees more realism than a year and a half ago because the conservative part has been given a voice. 'It's not just stacking ambitions anymore. There is a recognition that we cannot make all the steps right away yet. Both signals are being heard.'

Text: Willem Claassen

Contact information

Organizational unit: Nijmegen School of Management, Institute for Management Research, Public Administration, Methods
About person: Dr S. Smeets (Sandrino) , E.C. Leenders (Emma) MSc
Theme: International, Politics