Van der Zweerde first wants to make an important nuance. There are countless expressions that include the word ‘power’ that are misleading, he argues. “For example, seizing, holding or possessing power. These terms suggest that power is a sort of substance that you can have or not have, that you can conquer or lose. But power is not tangible; it revolves around the relationship between individuals and groups. To be exact, power is the ability to determine the will of another, regardless of the other’s actual will.”
Invisible resistance
According to Van der Zweerde, many dictators and rulers ended up in their positions more or less by accident. “Not because they necessarily strived for it, but because they succeeded a family member or were nominated by a predecessor,” he explains. “This was the case for al-Asad in Syria, for instance, and for Aliyev in Azerbaijan: they are both the sons of the former presidents. Upon succession, they suddenly faced power. Furthermore, power can only be exercised over something that needs to be directed and governed, such as a national government or a party. Just like a vehicle, these don’t start moving by themselves but pose resistance at first. What we often see is that authoritarian leaders immediately try to eliminate that resistance so that they are not contradicted in future.”
Yet this is a crucial mistake, claims Van der Zweerde. Because for many rulers or dictators, eliminating resistance immediately sparks fear and unrest. “They then realise that resistance may still exist, but that it is just not present in public anymore. For that reason, they don’t know how strong this invisible resistance actually is and they have to repress it everywhere.” Van der Zweerde gives an example. “We know that Donald Trump immediately fired people who contradicted him. Some authoritarian business leaders do the same. That is why people who claim that a second Trump term would be even more dangerous than the first are right: not only because he wants to take revenge, but also because he will surround himself by fanatical supporters rather than experienced professionals. As a leader, you’ll then face problems, because you won’t be able to judge where the resistance is or how strong it is. If you do not eliminate the resistance as a leader, you can keep track of it and know exactly how to manoeuvre between your support base and the resistance. Dictators and other authoritative rulers, on the other hand, are more vulnerable than they may seem: they have much to fear.”
Need for control
This fear leads many authoritarian leaders to no longer be able to perceive their own superiority, argues Van der Zweerde. They then realise that the threat to their position of power could come from anywhere. “This forces them to be more controlling. You often then see a form of secret police being established, with the goal of keeping an inconspicuous eye on people. The consequence is that the opposition operates further and further underground, as a result of which the secret police has to become even smarter. It might then seem as if the ruler or dictator is trying to grab more and more power, but in reality, it is about maintaining control. In other words: it is not really about the subjective tendencies of authoritarian people, but about the objective logics of authoritarian power constellations.”
This control can sometimes go too far, recognises Van der Zweerde. “There are dictatorial regimes in which one secret service spies on another secret service. Take the al-Asad regime in Syria, for instance: I have heard that 19 different secret services exist, which all monitor each other, so that al-Asad retains his power.”
Van der Zweerde emphasises that history has shown that by ostensibly eliminating resistance, many dictators actually dig their own graves. “That is also the reason as to why so few dictators die from natural causes: most die in a coup. It is therefore quite a challenge to stay in power for long or to keep a dictatorship afloat. Because after eliminating resistance, you as a ruler become increasingly vulnerable.”
This story is part of a series in which readers are given the opportunity to ask scientists a question. This time, the question was: Where does the strong tendency of dictators and rulers to acquire and execute power come from? Do you also have a question? Please email it to: recharge [at] ru.nl (recharge[at]ru[dot]nl)
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