Why the German election will be tense, and for the Netherlands too

Harder line

The concerns surrounding safety are not isolated. These are due to a series of terrorist attacks, which have plagued Germany for more than two years. The most recent attack was last December at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, which was followed by a fatal stabbing in a park in Aschaffenburg in January and in February by a collision on a crowd in Munich. These were preceded by stabbing incidents in Duisburg in 2023 and Mannheim in 2024. Many of these attacks had one detail in common: the perpetrator had a migrant background. “This confirmed for the AfD that a stricter migration and asylum policy is needed,” Meredig explained. “To a less extreme extent, the CDU is also in favour of this, but other parties believe that they have crossed the line by seeking the support of the AfD. This has led to the exchange of many personal accusations, with the main message being that the CDU can no longer be trusted. The vehemence with which politicians have subsequently been treating each other is unprecedented in the German debate. A civil political culture usually prevails, and it is one that is content-oriented rather than person-oriented. Today’s harder line is worrying many politicians. They fear that after the elections, time will initially be needed to reconcile the differences between the reciprocal relations.”

In response to the question of whether the elections subsequently revolve solely around the issue of asylum and migration, Meredig answers both yes and no. “Germany’s pension system has stalled and the economy has been declining for some years now. The German car industry in particular is having a very hard time. Many jobs are at risk. What is significant is that the AfD is incorporating the discussion about the economy into the migration debate. They are doing this by arguing that the economic decline is partly due to the arrival of the large number of low-skilled migrants, even though Germany could actually use some highly skilled immigrants. This means that the AfD will succeed in ensuring that asylum and migration remain the main theme of these elections.”

Consequence for the Netherlands

Meredig stressed that the upcoming elections will not only be tense for Germany, but also for its neighbouring country, the Netherlands. “In the past few years, Germany and the Netherlands have successfully collaborated at the European level, which is largely due to the good relationship between former German chancellor Merkel and former Dutch prime minister Rutte. They had many shared values, interests and motives. Whether this type of collaboration can continue in the future depends on the priorities that the new German government sets. As the Netherlands’ main trading partner, Germany also has an influence on the Dutch economy. There is a very good reason for the popular saying: ‘When Germany sneezes, the Netherlands catches a cold’. Especially now, with Germany’s declining economy, the new German government’s economic policy will be particularly relevant for the Netherlands.”

Meredig believes that the expectations of the German people have shifted. “During Merkel’s time in office, many Germans in the national administration had a need for stability. Merkel was able to provide this stability; there was good reason why she was affectionately called ‘Mutti Merkel’. This era has now come to an end. The desire for stable rule seems to have passed, and many Germans are now craving change. It should be noted here that a study showed that the previous coalition between the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands [Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)], Die Grünen [The Greens] and the liberal Freie Demokratische Partei [Free Democratic Party (FDP)] implemented two-thirds of their policy plans or began the implementation phase, but that it failed to communicate these results to the people.” Meredig, who was born and raised in Germany, is curious to see what the upcoming election will bring. “Although the CDU claims that it still doesn’t want to collaborate with the AfD, it will be interesting to see whether it can regain the confidence of the voters and the other parties. And the question will be whether and how close the AfD will get to the traditional parties like the SPD and CDU. It seems certain that this is going to be a tense election.”