In this PhD project the focus is on uncertainty quantification in grid calculations. Currently, the calculation rules are quite old compared to the fast change in use of the energy grid. When the grid operator determines whether a new customer can be connected to the grid they make predictions on it’s expected use and return of energy. As predictions work, they always take into account worst case scenario’s to make the grid reliable. At the moment an accumulation of worst case scenario’s and averages of estimations are used while in practice, this could be a too pessimistic expectation of the capacity of the grid. This results in limiting the number of new connections to the grid, which is an urgent problem in the whole country.
Putting an estimate on how likely a worst case scenario is, and additionally, consider the likelihood of two of the worst case scenarios at the same moment could lead to insights in more optimal use of the grid. Which has direct result that Alliander could add more connections to the grid without needing material grid changes.