Anyone following the Dutch coalition-building process will soon wonder: do other countries do this too? Zaslove explains that there are some similarities with our neighbouring country. “We are similar to Belgium, for example. There, too, it sometimes takes a long time to form a government: the current coalition-building process has been going on for almost a year and a half. And there, too, you have many parties that are all creating obstacles.”
Unimaginable collaborations
“In addition, it is unique how we manage to bring together parties of different colours.” When Zaslove was recently in Italy, he noticed how unimaginable such a collaboration is considered there. “I asked Italian colleagues: can you imagine bringing together parties from the left and right after the elections? And they looked at me: you're crazy here.” Although the Netherlands is often compared to Italy, he believes this is not accurate. “People say that, but it's not true at all. We are more like Belgium. There, it also often takes a long time before they get a government.”
Other countries are also struggling, but in their own way. “In Denmark, they work with minority cabinets. In Germany, they go for the middle ground, but there it is easier to exclude parties such as the AFD.”
Multiple political dimensions
According to Zaslove, there are several reasons why coalition negotiations are taking longer and longer. “The most important developments are fragmentation and the declining popularity of the mainstream parties. They simply no longer have a majority. You can see that in the results this time around: D66 is the largest party, but only has 26 seats.”
At the same time, there are more and more political dimensions at play. “In the past, the main sticking point in coalition negotiations was economic policy. Now it's not just the economy, but also social and cultural policy, migration policy, the climate, and so on. With so much fragmentation, how do you find common ground?”
The party system also plays a major role. “It's actually remarkable how we do things. The Netherlands has such an incredibly open party system. There is no other party system in the world where almost every party is relevant, where every party can play a role in a cabinet.”
'Even more strikingly, you can be a new party and be in government within a single cycle. Just look at the BBB and NSC, for example. Almost every party is relevant, and as a new party you can quickly enter government. That ensures democratic representation, but also endless puzzles. The options are so broad that, as a voter, you can vote for the left, but then end up with your party in a right-wing cabinet. That can be frustrating. A leader's political leeway also plays an important role. How open are you, how flexible do voters see you? Rutte, for example, was very flexible. In an earlier campaign, he claimed to be left-wing and able to pursue left-wing policies. And in the cabinet that followed, he responded from the right again. He was able to sell that, and voters went along with it.
Are we going back to the polls?
Nevertheless, Zaslove does not expect new elections. “I think they will definitely come to an agreement. Jette understands that we need something stable. The Dutch are willing to accept a little compromise if it means they get a stable cabinet in return.”
New elections would actually be dangerous. “It would be extremely unhealthy if they were held now.” Moreover, the parties know that their success is uncertain. “The growth of D66 is not stable. They could just as easily fall back again.” That is precisely why, Zaslove believes, the negotiators will persevere: “Jetten has this in his hands now and he has to see it through.”