Peace in Gaza? | Current Affairs Lecture with political scientist Niels Terpstra

What does the deal entail? Terpstra explained that phase 1 consists among others of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. This deal is essentially what Trump had in mind, spiced with some flavours of what Netanyahu thought he could agree to. Other aspects, like the future governance of Gaza, the disarming of Hamas and types of military involvement will be more difficult. 

Pressure

The agreement seems to have been reached quite suddenly. Why so? Well, reacted Terpstra, there are of course different perspectives, but Trump’s impatience suddenly played a role. He wanted to put pressure on both parties and Hamas were put against the wall. If they wouldn’t have agreed, Netanyahu would get an extended card blanche by Trump to do what they want in Gaza. Netanyahu was asked to give input on the agreement, for Hamas it was ‘this or nothing’. So if the deal would have failed, they would have gotten the blame. 

There was another peace agreement in Spring 2025, which didn’t last because there was no credible agreement or dedication to the root causes of the problems – and it’s the same now. Trump is not interested in the root causes. For him, might is right. The idea of a ceasefire is that it will stop the direct violence and after that it will be possible to talk about political questions. But an important topic that is completely missing from this agreement is justice. 

Skeptic

How big are the chances this time that even the ceasefire will hold? Terpstra said he is skeptical, but we will have to wait and see what happens in the next few days. The exchange between hostages and prisoners is scheduled on Monday. And if this goes according to plan, it will be a moment of triumph for Trump because nobody else was able to achieve this. On Tuesday the question will then be: was this enough to make it last? The only pressure on Netanyahu seems to come from Trump. If Trump remains committed to the continuation of this process – and of course one can’t be sure – we will get in the direction of the more contentious points in the plans: the disarming of Hamas and a two-state solution. 

Can anything be said about the long term perspective for the Palestinian people? According to Terpstra, the short term hope is that the ceasefire will hold. After that, it will also depend on the representation of the Palestinian people.  Because of course, if you want to discuss how Gaza should be governed after the genocide ends, the Palestinian people should be asked. 

What will this deal mean for Netanyahu, since there still seems to be opposition from his own government? That is true, agreed Terpstra: hardliners usually are the spoilers for any type of agreements. We will have to see what happens next: if there will still be attacks, it will sabotage the peace process. 

Netanyahu’s position

Might it also strengthen Netanyahu’s position? Terpstra’s impression was that it will be beneficial for him if the hostages are released, at least in domestic politics, but he doubted whether it will change anything on the international level. However, Netanyahu doesn’t seem to care much about that. I don’t like to be cynical, Terpstra added, but there are cynical politics in play – so it wouldn’t even be really surprised if Trump received the Nobel prize for this. 

Role of Palestine

President Macron hinted at the peace agreement as a pavement of the way for a 2-state solution. How does Terpstra see this? According to the perspective of Trump and Netanyahu, he responded, the actual representative role of Palestinians will be very limited. Trump has even mentioned former British prime minister Tony Blair as the leader of the future political party that should be governing Gaza. So according to the perspective of Trump and Netanyahu, the actual representative role of Palestinians will be very limited. But let’s not forget Europe and neighboring countries, he added. Most of the world does not support the US and Israel. They are central to the deal, but the majority of countries in the world looks at this conflict very differently and see the hypocrisy of international law being applied in some place but not in others. 

Announcement

There is great relief in Gaza, Israel and the rest of the world about the peace plan in Gaza. Palestinian journalists took to the streets to inform people, and relatives of hostages sought each other out. No one expected it to happen so quickly. Will this finally bring peace? What will this mean for Palestine and for Israel? What role have the US and other actors played? The current plan is a short-term agreement – what will happen next?  

About the speaker

Niels Terpstra is a lecturer in Conflict Studies at Radboud University's CICAM. He focuses on the analysis of armed conflicts and peace issues.