The End of Assad’s Rule: What Lies Ahead for Syria? | Current affairs Lecture with political scientists Bertjan Verbeek and Joshua Weiner

The Complexity of Civil Wars

Weiner began by explaining the nature of civil wars, noting that they tend to go on for longer than interstate conflicts. This is due to the “credible commitment problem,” where neither side can trust the other enough to negotiate peace agreements. Syria’s civil war, characterized by a fragmented opposition and the brutal tactics of the Assad regime, has proven to be no exception. Despite efforts at peace talks, the conflict has shown few signs of resolution, as trust among warring parties remains elusive.

Van Caspel asked Verbeek about the international dynamics at play. Verbeek outlined the diverse range of countries involved, each pursuing different, often contradictory, goals. Key players include Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States, Israel, and various Arab states. The Assad regime, with the support of Russia and Iran, has managed to retain power despite significant opposition. “Interstate rivalry has always been part of the situation”, Verbeek mentioned.  

The Rise of HTS

The rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that initially affiliated with Al-Qaeda before splitting in 2016, played a key role in the fall of the Assad regime. Although HTS is still designated as a terrorist organization by organizations including the UN and EU, it has emerged as a significant military force in northwest Syria, controlling large territories and presenting itself as a stabilizing local actor. Weiner highlighted how HTS has shifted its focus more localized governance, attempting to portray itself now as a protector of minorities and a stabilizer in the areas it controls. 

It’s hard to say if HTS’s intentions are sincere, given that, “there’s a strategic angle in HTS’s position” as well, as Weiner mentioned. “They need money to rebuild the country, and their terrorist designation prevents aid flows.” What’s more, the group’s internal diversity presents a challenge to any long-term predictions. HTS is made up of a coalition of armed groups with differing ideologies, which complicates efforts to determine how it might govern.

The decline of Russian support for Syria

Why did Assad’s regime fall now? Van Caspel asked. Here, the reduced involvement of Russia in Syria played a key role. “The Assad Regime didn’t have a unified command structure”, explained Weiner. Russia’s military engagement in Syria initially helped the Assad regime, but with the escalation of the war in Ukraine, Russian resources and attention have shifted. This change in priorities has left the Assad regime more vulnerable, creating opportunities for groups like HTS to gain ground. 

Turkey, with its interests in curbing Kurdish autonomy in Syria, is another key actor. As Weiner pointed out, Turkey’s support for various rebel factions, particularly in the northwest, has further complicated the regional dynamics. The US’s support for Kurdish forces in the fight against ISIS has also led to tensions with other international players, especially with the United States, which has backed the Syrian Kurds.

Israel’s role in the conflict is similarly complex. “Israel was never a major fan of Assad’s regime, but it created some kind of stability for them”, said Verbeek. Verbeek noted that Israel’s primary concern remains preventing any threats to its control over the Golan Heights, making its involvement in Syria largely reactive, focused on managing security risks. “It’s hard to predict what Israel wants”, said Verbeek.

Refugees and the Human Cost of the War

The human cost of the Syrian Civil War has been immense. Over a million refugees fled Syria in the early stages of the war, and millions more have been displaced internally. Large number of refugees are now located in neighbouring countries, particularly Turkey and Lebanon.. Weiner discussed the challenges faced by these countries, especially as Turkey has expressed a desire to repatriate refugees despite the ongoing instability in Syria. European countries, including Germany and Norway, have also paused asylum claims for the moment.

The Uncertain Future of Syria

As Verbeek and Weiner concluded, the future of Syria remains highly uncertain. While some regions may experience short-term stability, the broader trajectory of the war is hard to predict. The shifting allegiances between external powers and internal factions have created a complex political landscape that is unlikely to stabilize in the near future. The lessons of Syria’s devastating conflict are still unfolding, as international actors, local forces, and displaced populations wrestle with the consequences of years of war. Only time will tell how Syria will emerge from this crisis, but the road to a politically stable Syria remains long and fraught with uncertainty.

Announcement

After years of brutal rule by Bashar Al-Assad, his regime has fallen. This event is already being described as a historic moment. What exactly is going on in Syria? How sudden is this event? And above all, where do things go from here? What opportunities, but also difficulties, lie ahead for Syria? Come and listen to political scientists Bertjan Verbeek and Joshua Weiner. 

End of Assad rule

The Assad regime, led by Bashar al-Assad, has maintained power through authoritarian rule, military strength, and political repression since 2000. The regime became widely known for its brutal response to the 2011 Syrian uprising, which led to a devastating civil war with large-scale violations of human rights. With support from Russia and Iran, Assad has recaptured much of Syria, but his regime remained deeply unpopular and faced ongoing international criticism. How did his reign finally end? What events led up to this moment?  

Syria’s future

Who will emerge as the new political authority in Syria now that Assad's regime has collapsed? US President Joe Biden called the fall of the Assad regime a “moment of historic opportunity” and pledged to support the country to manage the risks. Can Syria create a political system that ensures peace and stability among all its ethnic and religious groups? And how will the ongoing influence of external actors, such as Turkey, the U.S., Russia and Iran, impact the country’s path forward? 

Come and listen to political scientists Bertjan Verbeek and Joshua Weiner about the end of Assad’s rule and the opportunities and risks that lie ahead for Syria. 

About the speakers

Bertjan Verbeek is a political scientist and professor of International Relations at Radboud University. He researches (crisis) decision-making in foreign policy.

Joshua Weiner is a political scientist and postdoctoral fellow at the Centre for International Conflict Analysis and Management (CICAM). He researches rebel movements in Syria.